Analyst Benjamin Cowen has updated his 'unfortunate pattern' thesis, arguing that stablecoin dominance — measured as USDT plus USDC dominance combined — is tracing a multi-year base breakout that historically precedes prolonged risk-off periods for Bitcoin. With stablecoin dominance recently sweeping below the 21-week EMA before recovering, Cowen sees the move as a textbook backtest of the breakout level, not a structural breakdown of the thesis.
The bearish read is reinforced by Bitcoin's recent rejection from its 200-day moving average — the same level that capped price in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Cowen draws a direct parallel to 2018: a February low, a higher low in April, a May high at the 200-day, and then a June sweep below the February low. He notes the current cycle is tracing a near-identical path.
Cowen also highlights that Bitcoin dominance excluding stablecoins…
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