Bitcoin has once again been rejected at the 200-day simple moving average, a level that has historically acted as a ceiling during bear markets. The pattern echoes 2018 and 2022, when BTC rallied into this resistance before rolling over into significant sell-offs. The only meaningful exception on record was 2014, when Bitcoin briefly cleared the level before resuming its decline.
Analysts tracking the current cycle expect weakness to persist through Q3 and potentially into early Q4 2025. Historically, rejections at the 200-day MA have been followed by retracements to the 38.2% Fibonacci level — a move that has not yet materialized in this cycle, leaving downside risk on the table.
The broader setup adds pressure: if Bitcoin fails to establish a cycle low in Q4 2025 and the equity market enters a bear phase, the path lower could extend further. Altcoins, which have broadly…
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