With Bitcoin trading just below $78,000, analyst Benjamin Cowen of Into The Cryptoverse revisits a recurring theme: bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears. The core argument is structural — in bear markets, prices spend more time trending upward than downward, giving bulls extended periods of feeling vindicated before the next leg lower arrives.
Cowen draws on historical cycle data to push back on the "this time is different" narrative. In 2018, it took roughly 19 weeks after the February low to set a new low; in 2022, about 21 weeks from the June low. At only 14 weeks since the current cycle low, he argues the timeline for a new low hasn't even arrived yet — pointing to June or later as the probable inflection window, consistent with prior bear market turning points in June 2018, June 2022, and the 2014 cycle high.
On the downside target, Cowen notes Bitcoin's realized price…
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