Bitcoin's long-term holder (LTH) supply has surged to 16.3 million BTC, up more than 2 million coins since the current bear market began — and up roughly 200,000 BTC in the past month alone. The cohort, defined as investors holding for at least 155 days, is now approaching the all-time high of 16.4 million BTC set in January 2024, just ahead of the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF launch.
Critically, LTH supply appears to have broken out of a 2.5-year downtrend that has largely kept the figure oscillating between 14 million and 16 million BTC since that ETF launch. The last time supply was this concentrated in long-term hands, the months that followed saw nearly 2 million BTC distributed as bitcoin rallied sharply — a pattern that played out in both the 2015 and 2019 bear markets as well.
The read here is structural: long-term holders are accumulating into price weakness, not distributing.…
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