Treasury Yields Hit 12-Month Highs as Fed Hike Bets Surge — Bitcoin Pinned Below Its 200-Day Average!

U.S. two-year and ten-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since mid-2025 on Friday, with the two-year touching 4.05% and the benchmark ten-year reaching 4.50%. The catalyst: hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI prints for April that have traders rapidly repricing Fed policy. CME FedWatch now shows a 44% probability of a December rate hike — up from 22.5% just one week ago and a complete reversal from the multiple-cut scenario markets were pricing at the start of the year.

Bitcoin is trading near $81,000, still below its 200-day simple moving average just above $82,000. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like BTC: Treasuries now offer more attractive risk-free dollar returns while simultaneously serving as collateral across global funding markets. Gold is also feeling the pressure, down 0.7% on the day at $4,614.

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