CryptoQuant Flags March 2022 Bear Pattern in Bitcoin — 200-Day MA Is the Line That Matters

Bitcoin's 37% rally from its April 2025 lows has stalled at the same ceiling that ended the 2022 bounce: the 200-day moving average near $82,000. CryptoQuant's head of research Julio Moreno draws the comparison explicitly — in March 2022, BTC surged 43% from its lows, kissed the 200-day MA, and resumed a prolonged downtrend. The current setup is uncomfortably similar.

Spot demand is contracting, speculative futures interest dried up above $82K, and U.S. spot ETFs have flipped to net sellers, offloading roughly 4,000 BTC after accumulating as much as 64,000 BTC in the prior 30-day window. BTC is now consolidating in a $76,000–$78,000 band, with near-term chart targets pointing to $78,000–$79,000 and a potential spike toward $82,000 — though the indicator tally reads 10 sells versus 7 buys.

CryptoQuant's framework is direct: a failure to reclaim the 200-day MA is "the strongest…