Galaxy's Alex Thorn puts CLARITY Act passage odds at 75% — is August crypto's most pivotal month ever?

Galaxy Digital's head of research Alex Thorn has raised his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act passing to 75%, a significant upgrade that signals growing conviction among institutional observers that the US is finally closing in on a comprehensive crypto regulatory framework.

The CLARITY Act, if enacted, would establish clear jurisdictional lines between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets — a structural shift the industry has been lobbying for since at least 2022. Thorn's 75% call is notable precisely because Galaxy Research has historically been measured in its legislative forecasts.

With August emerging as the potential flashpoint for a Senate vote or committee breakthrough, the question the market is now pricing is whether this is the month that rewrites the US crypto regulatory map for the next decade.