Ethereum Quietly Setting Up a Move to $3,700–$4,200 as Bitcoin's 200-Day Test Looks Different This Cycle

A technical and macro analysis from Crypto Capital Venture argues that Ethereum may be exiting a post-quantitative-tightening consolidation phase similar to the one seen in 2019, with an upside target of $3,700 to $4,200 — the lower-high Fibonacci resistance from the recent swing high to swing low. The thesis rests on a key distinction: the 200-day moving average rejections in 2018 and 2022 both occurred at the onset of record-breaking QT cycles, while the current rejection arrives just as QT has ended.

The analyst draws a parallel to the 140-day post-QT dip in 2019, after which crypto bounced to a lower-high Fibonacci before resuming its bull run. Applied to this cycle, that framework points to a potential Ethereum move into the $3,700–$4,200 zone by mid-year, with a possible brief dip to around $1,500 first. Bitcoin's downside scenario is also mapped: a potential test of the $61,000…