Bernstein holds $190 Circle price target as $222M ARC presale offsets rate headwinds!

Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating and $190 price target on Circle after the stablecoin issuer posted Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $151 million — roughly 10% above consensus estimates. The beat came despite an 11% quarter-over-quarter decline in reserve income, a direct consequence of softer interest rates compressing the yield Circle earns on its USDC reserves.

The key cushion, according to Bernstein analysts, is Circle's $222 million ARC token presale, executed at a $3 billion fully diluted valuation. That capital injection provides a meaningful buffer against the structural headwind of lower reserve income, reducing the earnings sensitivity to further rate moves ahead of Circle's anticipated public listing.

The combination of a consensus-beating EBITDA print and a well-timed presale gives Circle a credible earnings story even in a rate-softening environment — exactly the kind of…