Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will explode past $90K on its way to $126,000 — and he's going maximum risk!

Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom and BitMEX co-founder, says bitcoin's return to its all-time high of $126,000 is a "foregone conclusion" — and he is already positioned for it. Hayes flags $90,000 as the critical trigger: once breached, call-option sellers will be forced to buy bitcoin to cover their positions, creating a self-reinforcing, explosive rally.

His macro thesis rests on two inflationary engines running in parallel. First, AI infrastructure capex has outgrown the cash flows of big tech and now requires credit creation by commercial banks and central banks — the Fed and the PBOC are both loosening conditions to support it, with Chinese banks rotating capital out of real estate and into tech. Second, the U.S.-Iran war is forcing sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and stockpile commodities, pulling capital away from dollar assets. Hayes frames the combined…