April CPI Blows Past Forecasts at 3.8% YoY — Fed Rate Cuts Effectively Dead for 2024!

April's Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected on every measure, crushing hopes for near-term Federal Reserve rate relief. Headline CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month — double the 0.3% forecast — and 3.8% year-over-year, above the 3.7% consensus and a sharp acceleration from March's 3.3%. Core CPI, stripping out food and energy, printed 0.4% MoM versus a 0.2% forecast, with the annual core rate climbing to 2.8%.

Markets moved swiftly: U.S. stock index futures sold off across the board, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.44%, and WTI crude added 3% to hit $101 — a triple headwind for risk assets. Bitcoin slid to $80,600 in the immediate aftermath, down roughly 1.2% on the day.

The Fed funds rate sits at 350-375bps, and the CME FedWatch tool now shows markets pricing near-zero probability of a cut at the June 17 meeting. With core inflation re-accelerating and energy prices…