Three onchain signals suggest Bitcoin's $60K February low may have been the cycle bottom

With bitcoin trading back above $77,000, a convergence of onchain and derivatives data is building a case that the cycle low was already printed in February, when BTC briefly slid toward $60,000 — a drop of more than 50% from its October record high.

Realized cap, which tracks the aggregate cost basis of all coins based on their last onchain movement, peaked near $1.12 trillion before falling to roughly $1.08 trillion. That drawdown represents one of the largest wealth destructions on record, but the metric has since stabilized and begun forming a base — a pattern that closely mirrors the accumulation floor seen during the 2022 bear market bottom.

The RHODL Ratio, which compares wealth held by six-month-to-two-year holders against newer participants, has climbed above 5 — its third-highest reading ever. Only the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms produced higher readings. Since February,…