CryptoQuant's latest analysis flags a troubling structural parallel: bitcoin's current price action and on-chain sentiment metrics are tracking closely with the 2022 bear market cycle, a period that ultimately saw BTC shed roughly 75% from its all-time high before bottoming near $15,500.
The firm's sentiment indicators have tipped into 'extremely bearish' territory — a reading that, in 2022, preceded the most painful leg of the drawdown rather than signalling a floor. CryptoQuant's models weight a combination of miner behaviour, exchange flows, and derivatives positioning to arrive at that composite score, making it a broader gauge than price alone.
For investors, the key question is whether the macro backdrop — still elevated rates, tightening liquidity, and risk-off equity flows — provides the same gravitational pull it did in 2022. If the parallel holds, the current consolidation…
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