Citi: A 1970s-Style Oil Shock Would Require the Strait of Hormuz Closed Into Early 2027

Citi analysts have set a high bar for a repeat of 1970s-style oil shock conditions: the Strait of Hormuz would need to remain closed well into early 2027 for supply disruption to reach that historical magnitude. The Strait is the world's most critical oil chokepoint, with roughly 20% of global petroleum flows passing through it daily.

The framing is significant because it implicitly anchors current geopolitical risk below that threshold — Citi's view suggests that even a prolonged closure would need to be sustained over many months before macro damage approaches the stagflationary episodes of 1973 or 1979. For markets, the note functions as a calibration tool: elevated but not yet systemic.